This can lead to social and political woes (and even hunger) in some countries of Africa and the Middle East. The sowing campaign that is a crucial period for agrarians in one of the world’s most powerful exporters of grain, sunflower oil and other agrarian products is now almost disrupted because of the Russian invasion on February 24.
Tanks are shooting, and armored vehicles are on their way in many regions, where the tractors rumbled on the fields at this time last year. Some of the corn fields are particularly mined. One just cannot conduct any agricultural works in such conditions. There are military actions going on in ten regions of Ukraine. According to GMK Center, that makes 52 percent from Ukraine’s total wheat cultivation area, 54 percent from sunflower cultivation area and 42 percent from corn cultivation area. Sunflower and corn is usually sown in April and May, while summer wheat, barley and beans should be planted in the ground already in March.
Apart from explosions on fields, the farmers faced logistic problems that they did not experience before. Even if the seed stock is already paid for, there are chances it will never be delivered to the farm – not to mention the fertilizers and the drugs to protect plants. Many farms lack fuel for tractors. But even those who stocked some fuel share it with the military. A huge question is whether you sow the seeds or fill in the tank of a combat vehicle that protects the country. The lack of tractor drivers is tangible, too – in conditions of martial law, they choose to fight for the state and switch from tractors to tanks and armored cars.
The massive resource outflow from the country carries on – it also concerns the people involved in agricultural production. 1.5 million peaceful citizens have already left the country during the two weeks of the escalation of the Russian aggression, escaping from war. Forecasts say that the number of evacuees will reach five million people. It makes sense that such a situation will result in considerable losses on Ukraine’s corn fields. But it also will strongly undermine the stability of international food markets. Out of last year’s record of 84 million tons of grain crops, Ukraine exported almost 18 million tons of wheat, 5.6 million tons of barley, almost 162 thousand tons of rye and almost 19 million tons of corn – all within the period of almost eight months. In general, that makes 43 million tons of grain crops (including the flour) sent beyond Ukraine. The country’ share in the world export of sunflower oil makes 55 percent.
Currently, it is difficult to say how much the volume of exports from Ukraine will drop this year, and the same goes for the harvest volumes – it will much depend on the course of the war. But it is quite obvious that Ukraine is not the only one to lose in this situation. Currently, the sunflower oil prices on international stock markets have already soared to their historical maximum due to the lack of clear prospects in terms of its supplies in the Black Sea region. And it seems that the deficit of food due to the military actions in Ukraine will only grow stronger. If the military action engulfs the entire territory of Ukraine, the planet might face further deforestation and burning of forests for the sake of enlarging the palm plantations, as well as cultivation areas of wheat, barley and crops. Thus, the farmers will try to compensate for the lack of Ukrainian wheat and sunflower oil.
